The Tigers have had awful production from the catcher position this year as Laird/Avila have combined for a dismal .560 OPS when the American League average is .691. There are some potential upgrades to be had and one some Tigers fans come back to is John Buck.
Buck's been part of the home run barrage going on north of the boarder. He's slugged out 14 already, 4 off of his career high of 18 he set in 2007 with the Kansas City Royals. Is he desirable? Yes. Is he worth over-paying for? Absolutely not.
Buck is currently sporting a 15.2% home run-to fly ball rate which is about 2.5% higher than his career 12.6% rate. This is the main driver of his career high Isolated Power of .231. Let's look at this for a bit. READ MORE...
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tigers Acquire Jhonny Peralta
The Tigers made a move to help bolster an infield that's half missing due to injury, and another spot that was never really filled this year (SS) by nabbing Jhonny Peralta.
I LOVE this move... if it were still 2008. Facts are that Peralta's batted ball data has shifted from a once-ground ball heavy (50.2% in 2008) to a fly-ball heavy hitter (33.9% this year). Due to this, his BABIP has dropped from the .315 from 2007-2009 to just .284 this year. This isn't something new, either. Hit more fly balls, you generally have fewer balls fall in for hits (see: Granderson, Curtis).
The biggest thing to not like about Peralta? The power outage. From 2006-2008 Peralta had an Isolated Power of .162 and the last two years Peralta's bottomed out posting a collective .129 Iso. That's a huge drop.let's peruse the leaderboards to get a feel for how big a 33 point drop is. Over the last three years, Joe Mauer, Lyle Overbay, and JJ Hardy have posted .162 IsoP numbers. Orlando Hudson has posted a .129 IsoP in that same time frame. Yuniesky Betancourt has posted a .127 Iso in span of time as well.
So we've not got a gut who hits for as much power as Yuniesky Betancourt. Congratulations!
"He can play shortstop when Inge gets back!"
Yes. Jhonny Peralta can physically stand at the shortstop position and not field baseballs that other guys will field. So he can play shortstop but he shouldn't play shortstop. There's a reason the Cleveland Indians have moved him off the position and it wasn't to be fair to opposing hitters because Peralta's just that good in the field. John Dewan has him as a +6 this year in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR has him at -2.2. Let's just call him an average defender. That'd be all well and good if he were still at short, but he's average at 3rd base. He'll likely be below average at shortstop. (More after the jump.)
I LOVE this move... if it were still 2008. Facts are that Peralta's batted ball data has shifted from a once-ground ball heavy (50.2% in 2008) to a fly-ball heavy hitter (33.9% this year). Due to this, his BABIP has dropped from the .315 from 2007-2009 to just .284 this year. This isn't something new, either. Hit more fly balls, you generally have fewer balls fall in for hits (see: Granderson, Curtis).
The biggest thing to not like about Peralta? The power outage. From 2006-2008 Peralta had an Isolated Power of .162 and the last two years Peralta's bottomed out posting a collective .129 Iso. That's a huge drop.let's peruse the leaderboards to get a feel for how big a 33 point drop is. Over the last three years, Joe Mauer, Lyle Overbay, and JJ Hardy have posted .162 IsoP numbers. Orlando Hudson has posted a .129 IsoP in that same time frame. Yuniesky Betancourt has posted a .127 Iso in span of time as well.
So we've not got a gut who hits for as much power as Yuniesky Betancourt. Congratulations!
"He can play shortstop when Inge gets back!"
Yes. Jhonny Peralta can physically stand at the shortstop position and not field baseballs that other guys will field. So he can play shortstop but he shouldn't play shortstop. There's a reason the Cleveland Indians have moved him off the position and it wasn't to be fair to opposing hitters because Peralta's just that good in the field. John Dewan has him as a +6 this year in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR has him at -2.2. Let's just call him an average defender. That'd be all well and good if he were still at short, but he's average at 3rd base. He'll likely be below average at shortstop. (More after the jump.)
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Thanks Bill Ferris
Bill Ferris of Detroit Tigers Weblog fame announced he's stepping aside today from being a daily blogger on the Detroit Tigers. KJ at The Only Colors briefly talked about Bill's impact on him and Kurt briefly did the same at Bless You Boys. If you ask Matt Wallace and Lee Panas, I'm sure they'd both echo KJ and Kurt's thoughts as well. So, I felt the need to write a few words about Bill and how much I'll miss DTW.
I found the site in late 2006. After the Series That Never Happened versus Kansas City, well, happened to end the regular season. Oh, and there was the World Series that supposedly happened but I've blocked that from my mind. I was 20 years old and looking for a place to discuss baseball because my dad and brother only marginally liked it and none of my friends could stand it. Moves too slow. Lacks action. No one's getting tackled or hit (unless Kyle Farnsworth is on the field during a brawl).
I somehow stumbled onto Bill's site in the latter part of that 06 season and shared in the misery that everyone else there was immersed in. It was theraputic.
At that time I was dipping my toes into the sabermetric pool as well. DTW was such a godsend because it was a Tigers-specific blog ran by someone else who knew more about sabermetrics than I did. I loved it. Anyone that doesn't like what I've written here or for Bless You Boys that comes from a big time math/nerd/saber angle can point their fingers to Bill. Had I not found DTW, who knows how much I'd like sabermetrics today.
Bill is also the reason I own the 2008 Hard Ball Times Annual. He gave the choice of three books to the three people with the most comments on his site. Yours truly won with over 700 in 2007. It's a fact that doesn't impress as many people as you'd think. Still, I'd like to think that he put that book in there knowing it'd be the one that I'd pick as my prize for him being a great blogger. Realistically, he'd written a big article examining Dave Dombrowski's career as a General Manager and it was likely a free copy he got for doing it (along with some coin).
Bill was also very accessible, as are most bloggers. He's responded to every email I've ever sent him and always in a timely manner. Hell, he even emailed me in 2008 to see if he'd pissed me off because I hadn't been commenting on his site that year. Truth was, I found RSS Feeds and just how amazing they are (this is pre-twitter explosion for you youngins' out there) and read all of his stuff but had other avenues to expunge my baseball talk, plus life was in the way for the most part. 2009 saw me try my hand in the latter half of the year as a semi-blogger and I've been at BYB sporadically this year. Unfortunately, I've kind of been unwoven from the community fabric that still exists at DTW, but it's still a big building block of me as a baseball fan.
Unfortunately with Bill semi-retiring from blogging and Ian's departure around the new year, we've lost two of the three out of what I used to think of as the "Big Three." This was Bill/DTW, Ian/BYB and Kurt/Mack Avenue Tigers. Kurt, obviously, took the reins at Bless You Boys and Ian does write for MLive.com and you can find him on a podcast over at the Daily Fungoes.
But the Tigers blog-o-sphere is shrinking. No disrespect to other Tigers bloggers (because there are others that I read) but we're missing two large chunks out of what I once argued was a top three independent, team-specific blogging circle.
Ian made his decision for the right reasons and now Bill is moving on to better things: spending more time with his family. Our "loss" is their immense gain. I just wanted to expand on something that KJ at The Only Colors and Kurt mentioned briefly when Bill made his announcement. 9 years is a hell of a run. In internet years, that's probably around 112, so kudos to him. Even blogging part-time -- especially the types of analysis Bill would do -- is a ton of effort. He deserves to be saluted for it. I like to think of him as a Mitch Albom of the Tigers blog-o-sphere -- you know, with out the contempt from most of his peers and holier-than-thou attitude -- in that he has directly or indirectly influenced every single person that blogs on the Tigers.
To Bill Ferris!
I found the site in late 2006. After the Series That Never Happened versus Kansas City, well, happened to end the regular season. Oh, and there was the World Series that supposedly happened but I've blocked that from my mind. I was 20 years old and looking for a place to discuss baseball because my dad and brother only marginally liked it and none of my friends could stand it. Moves too slow. Lacks action. No one's getting tackled or hit (unless Kyle Farnsworth is on the field during a brawl).
I somehow stumbled onto Bill's site in the latter part of that 06 season and shared in the misery that everyone else there was immersed in. It was theraputic.
At that time I was dipping my toes into the sabermetric pool as well. DTW was such a godsend because it was a Tigers-specific blog ran by someone else who knew more about sabermetrics than I did. I loved it. Anyone that doesn't like what I've written here or for Bless You Boys that comes from a big time math/nerd/saber angle can point their fingers to Bill. Had I not found DTW, who knows how much I'd like sabermetrics today.
Bill is also the reason I own the 2008 Hard Ball Times Annual. He gave the choice of three books to the three people with the most comments on his site. Yours truly won with over 700 in 2007. It's a fact that doesn't impress as many people as you'd think. Still, I'd like to think that he put that book in there knowing it'd be the one that I'd pick as my prize for him being a great blogger. Realistically, he'd written a big article examining Dave Dombrowski's career as a General Manager and it was likely a free copy he got for doing it (along with some coin).
Bill was also very accessible, as are most bloggers. He's responded to every email I've ever sent him and always in a timely manner. Hell, he even emailed me in 2008 to see if he'd pissed me off because I hadn't been commenting on his site that year. Truth was, I found RSS Feeds and just how amazing they are (this is pre-twitter explosion for you youngins' out there) and read all of his stuff but had other avenues to expunge my baseball talk, plus life was in the way for the most part. 2009 saw me try my hand in the latter half of the year as a semi-blogger and I've been at BYB sporadically this year. Unfortunately, I've kind of been unwoven from the community fabric that still exists at DTW, but it's still a big building block of me as a baseball fan.
Unfortunately with Bill semi-retiring from blogging and Ian's departure around the new year, we've lost two of the three out of what I used to think of as the "Big Three." This was Bill/DTW, Ian/BYB and Kurt/Mack Avenue Tigers. Kurt, obviously, took the reins at Bless You Boys and Ian does write for MLive.com and you can find him on a podcast over at the Daily Fungoes.
But the Tigers blog-o-sphere is shrinking. No disrespect to other Tigers bloggers (because there are others that I read) but we're missing two large chunks out of what I once argued was a top three independent, team-specific blogging circle.
Ian made his decision for the right reasons and now Bill is moving on to better things: spending more time with his family. Our "loss" is their immense gain. I just wanted to expand on something that KJ at The Only Colors and Kurt mentioned briefly when Bill made his announcement. 9 years is a hell of a run. In internet years, that's probably around 112, so kudos to him. Even blogging part-time -- especially the types of analysis Bill would do -- is a ton of effort. He deserves to be saluted for it. I like to think of him as a Mitch Albom of the Tigers blog-o-sphere -- you know, with out the contempt from most of his peers and holier-than-thou attitude -- in that he has directly or indirectly influenced every single person that blogs on the Tigers.
To Bill Ferris!
Friday, December 18, 2009
More Site News
Well, now that the cat is out the bag, I can formally announce that I'm moving on over to Bless You Boys.What this means is that I'm 99% sure I'll be abandoning this blog for the duration that I'm at BYB. It's been fun since I've started to write semi-regularly in here and I hope anyone that stops by here follows on over there where I won't be changing a thing as I bring the nerdy math, PITCHf/x breakdown, and some prospect talk.
Big thanks to Kurt for inviting me a couple weeks ago and a huge thanks to Ian for making that site the biggest Tigers blog on the internet. I'm excited and honored to write for it.
I've enjoyed growing this blog from rants about Jim Leyland a couple years ago to trying to bring an advanced look into the Detroit Tigers roster construction and an analytical view point at what would be best for the club.
Big thanks to Kurt for inviting me a couple weeks ago and a huge thanks to Ian for making that site the biggest Tigers blog on the internet. I'm excited and honored to write for it.
I've enjoyed growing this blog from rants about Jim Leyland a couple years ago to trying to bring an advanced look into the Detroit Tigers roster construction and an analytical view point at what would be best for the club.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Thinking Out Loud What Most Tigers Fans Will Hate
I have no silly intro for this. I've been mulling it around since I wrote about the very first rumors of a Granderson trade bubbled up a few weeks ago: Should the Tigers shop Justin Verlander?
I'm only inspired to write this after Eddie Bajek and Kurt both made similar statements on Twitter. Safety in numbers I suppose.
Here's why I think it is time:
I'm only inspired to write this after Eddie Bajek and Kurt both made similar statements on Twitter. Safety in numbers I suppose.
Here's why I think it is time:
Time To Question Dave Dombrowski?
So today is the day all the media has their reactionary pieces to easily the biggest deal of the Winter Meetings thus far (and likely to be the biggest one of the Winter Meetings once they conclude). This little nugget, via Ian, really, um, intrigued me:
I'm going to assume that the Tigers have a lot more information at their disposal than I do. I'm also going to assume that Dave Dombrowski can run a professional franchise better than I can. However, I do not follow the reasoning here.
What would a Scherzer-for-Jackson deal have meant?
The way I heard how the Granderson trade began was that Arizona was trying to get Edwin Jackson at the GM Meetings and was told Max Scherzer was too little of a return, but felt Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth was too much. So Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes' first call was to Cashman because he assumed Granderson fit the Yankees' needs so ideally, and that the Yanks had resources that Detroit wanted.Am I the only one that finds this concerning? I know this is going to come off as sounding like "the blogger knows more than the professional sports franchise" but I find this quote to be baffling. Max Scherzer isn't enough for Edwin Jackson? Is it that he strikes out more guys than Jackson? That he's younger and already had a better full season than Jackson's ever had? That he's cheaper? That he's farther away from arbitration? I'm failing to see where it is that Scherzer doesn't stack up with Edwin Jackson in the eyes of the Detroit Tigers.
I'm going to assume that the Tigers have a lot more information at their disposal than I do. I'm also going to assume that Dave Dombrowski can run a professional franchise better than I can. However, I do not follow the reasoning here.
What would a Scherzer-for-Jackson deal have meant?
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
The Trade (Foolish Projections Ahead)
I was going to write this earlier this afternoon after news broke that the Tigers have agreed to deal Curtis Granderson, but I couldn't collect my thoughts enough. Bill, Lee, Matt, Kurt -- and I'm sure Ian, too -- all have thoughts from the emotional side of the issue. They're far more eloquent than I am, so I won't re-hash the things they've said already.
But, being this is Tigers by the Numbers, well, let's get to the numbers after the jump . . .
But, being this is Tigers by the Numbers, well, let's get to the numbers after the jump . . .
Monday, December 7, 2009
What to Expect From Adam Everett
We've got our shortstop. Adam Everett has returned for the paltry price of $1.55 million. He apparently was looking in the $3 million range, but signs for half of that. Do we get our money's worth?
Basically, if he repeats his 2009 season, we easily get about 4 times the surplus value of Everett. But, I'm going to say this: he needs to play more.
I know, I know, his bat is awful. It's a pain to watch him stink it up at the plate at the bottom of the order. But that's not where his money lies. Valuing Adam Everett occurs at the jump. . .
Basically, if he repeats his 2009 season, we easily get about 4 times the surplus value of Everett. But, I'm going to say this: he needs to play more.
I know, I know, his bat is awful. It's a pain to watch him stink it up at the plate at the bottom of the order. But that's not where his money lies. Valuing Adam Everett occurs at the jump. . .
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Site Changes
After much thought and consideration, I've decided to grab a domain name. Due to this, I've dropped the previous "Fire Jim Leyland" moniker. It was a more difficult decision than it probably should have been, but I was willing to give up the 5-6 hits I was getting from people typing in a combination of fire, Jim, and/or Leyland in a search engine.
Also, you probably noticed, but in case you haven't (and given the sporadic writings around here, I'm sure most haven't) I threw up the generic google ads. I figured why not? Can't hurt. And I'm up to $2.20 in the month since I've done that. So I'm looking to be living large in my retirement from blogging earnings in or around 2093. It will be amazing.
But the biggest piece of news is that you can now get here by www.tigersbythenumbers.com, as I've changed the name to Tigers by the Numbers. I figured I like the Tigers, I like numbers, and I essentially am putting the two together in every post, it makes sense.
In the mean time, I'm restoring my blog roll to the right -- sorry Kurt, it for some reason won't add your site! I also will probably mess with some of the templates over the next couple of days, so if things seem out of whack, that's why. On the whole, I'm pretty apathetic about the look of this blog as I think the content of it is what is most important. I'm just looking for something clean and easy and will maybe test run a couple of them for a few days each to see what I like the best.
Also, you probably noticed, but in case you haven't (and given the sporadic writings around here, I'm sure most haven't) I threw up the generic google ads. I figured why not? Can't hurt. And I'm up to $2.20 in the month since I've done that. So I'm looking to be living large in my retirement from blogging earnings in or around 2093. It will be amazing.
But the biggest piece of news is that you can now get here by www.tigersbythenumbers.com, as I've changed the name to Tigers by the Numbers. I figured I like the Tigers, I like numbers, and I essentially am putting the two together in every post, it makes sense.
In the mean time, I'm restoring my blog roll to the right -- sorry Kurt, it for some reason won't add your site! I also will probably mess with some of the templates over the next couple of days, so if things seem out of whack, that's why. On the whole, I'm pretty apathetic about the look of this blog as I think the content of it is what is most important. I'm just looking for something clean and easy and will maybe test run a couple of them for a few days each to see what I like the best.
Is Bobby Crosby a Good Move?
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